Euler Hermes World Agency Economic Update – Game of Trade
Trade Stark: "Growth is coming". The volume of globaltrade is estimated to increase by+4.3%in 2017 and+3.9%in 2018. In value terms, itisforecastto expand by +7.5%in 2017 and+6.3%in 2018. The lattertrend isin line with the synchronized acceleration of growth acrossthe globe aftertwo disappointing years(2014-16), during which globaltrade haslost close toUSD3tn. The main culprits were demand shocks and a collapse of commodity prices. In 2017, due to a significantrise in prices, we expectthe trend to reverse. By 2018, global trade should recoverthe massive losses. Furthermore,trade recovery issetto add half a pointto worldGDP growth this year and next and help it edge above+3%. Strong demand growth will come from theUS,the Eurozone, and emerging Asia.On the exportside, Europe and Emerging Asia are setto benefitthe mostfrom the trade momentum.