Credimundi Country Risk Assessment – China
The National Party Congress (NPC) next autumn will be a significant event as most of the CCP’s leaders are expected to be replaced, within both the Central Committee (CC) and the key Politburo Standing Committee (PSC). The process is expected to be smooth and ensure future political stability. As for Xi Jinping, who is expected to bring more allies within the CC, his presidential mandate will be extended for another five years in March 2018. In fact, a question mark hangs over Xi’s potential third term. Based on the growing centralisation and personalisation of power during his first term, staying in power for longer as president, i.e. until 2027, is not ruled out but it would require a constitutional change. Hence, he might instead prefer to seek a 3rd term as General Secretary. The PSC composition and potential change of unwritten election rules (i.e. the retirement age and the two-term limit for the General Secretary) will give an indication of Xi’s current political strength...
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