Check out the latest Economic Report from Atradius for November 2018. Atradius Economic Outlook November 2018
Budget October 2018 – Headline Summary, as provided by Atradius
· OBR growth forecast for 2019 revised up from 1.3% to 1.6%, 1.4% in 2020 and 2021, 1.5% in 2022 and 1.6% in 2023
· 800,000 more jobs by 2023, net 4.1m new jobs since 2010
· Inflation forecast to move to the 2% target next year
· National debt peaked in 2016/7 at 85.2% of GDP and is forecast to be 83.7% share of GDP in 2018/19
· Forecast to fall each year until reaching 74.1% in 2023/4
· Borrowing as a percentage of GDP will fall to 1.3% in 2021
· Borrowing forecast to be £11.6bn less this year at £31.8bn in 2019-20, falling to £19.8bn in 2023-24
· £2.2bn already allocated for Brexit preparations and, another £1.5bn was allocated at Autumn Budget last year for 2019-20, which will now increase to £2bn.
· Spring Statement will be upgraded to full Budget if required
Small Business Sector:
· £695m package to support apprenticeships. Smaller firms taking on apprentices will see levy halved from 10% to 5%
· Employment Allowance Reform – From April 2020, access will be restricted to employers with an employer NI bill below £100,00
· Business rateable values will adjust at next revaluation in 2021. Until then, for the next two years, businesses in England with rateable value of £51,000 or less will see their rates bill cut by one third
· £675m of co-funding to create Future High Streets Fund to support councils transform their high streets and facilitate redevelopment of underused retail and commercial areas into residential
· £1,500 business rates discount for office space occupied by local newspapers in 2019-20
· Mandatory business rates relief for public lavatories (Atradius did not see this one coming)
· Local authorities will be fully compensated for the loss of income as a result of these measures
Trade and entrepreneurs:
· Increasing UK Export Finance’s direct lending facility by up to £2bn to support British exports
· Extend start-up loan funding until 2021 for entrepreneurs
· Extending Enterprise Allowance providing mentoring and support for benefit claimants to get businesses off the ground
· Retain entrepreneurs’ relief – extending minimum qualifying period from 12 to 24 months
· VAT registration – options are restricted by EU law. In the meantime, threshold maintained for next two years
· £550m more for the Welsh Government
· Reviewing Welsh Government borrowing powers to support the M4 relief road
· £120m for North Wales Growth Deal
· Additional £950m for Scottish Government
· £150m for a Tay Cities Deal
· £320m more for Northern Ireland Executive
· £300m to progress shared and integrated education projects
· £350m for a Belfast City Region Deal and opening negotiations on the Derry/Londonderry and Strabane City Region Deal
Cost of living:
· Fuel: duty frozen for 9th consecutive year
· Alcohol: spirits, beer and cider duty frozen
· Tobacco duties will continue to rise at inflation plus 2%
· Usual RPI increases on wine and new duty band to target white ciders will go ahead as planned
· Further £500m for housing infrastructure fund for 650,000 homes (fund now stands at £5.5bn)
· Stamp duty abolished for all first-time buyers on shared ownership homes, backdated to November 2017
· New discounted homes in up to 500 neighbourhoods. Parishes can allocate or permission land for homes sold at a discount
· Capital Gains Tax: From April 2020, limit lettings relief to homes where the owner is in shared occupancy with tenant and reduce the final period exemption from 18 months to nine months
Transport and Infrastructure:
· £420m immediately available to local highway authority to tackle potholes, bridge repairs and minor works
· Transforming Cities Fund extended by a year to 2022-23 with £240m to the six metro mayors for significant transport investment in their areas: £21m for Cambridgeshire and Peterborough, £69.5m for Greater Manchester, £38.5m for Liverpool City Region, £23m for West of England, £71.5m for the West Midlands, and £16.5m for Tees Valley.
· £90m allocated to the Transforming Cities Fund to create Future Mobility Zones, trialling new models of smart transport including on demand buses
· £37m additional for Northern Powerhouse Rail
· Improvements to Docklands Light Railway
· A new railcard for all young people aged 26-30 will be available by the end of this year
· From April 2020, Air Passenger Duty will be indexed in line with inflation but there will be no change in the duty rate for short-haul flights
· Temporary increase in the annual investment allowance from £200,000 to £1m for two years
Research and industries:
· £1.6bn of new investments to support modern industrial strategy ranging from nuclear fusion to quantum computing
· £12m over the next 3 years for cutting edge fisheries technology and safety
· New commemorative 50p Brexit coin from Spring 2019
Atradius’ latest country report focuses on Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European markets.
Key indicators are monitored for trends in order to determine the risk in various markets.
Atradius Country Report – Eastern Europe – Oct 2018
Trade Stark: “Growth is coming”. The volume of globaltrade is estimated to increase by+4.3%in 2017 and+3.9%in 2018. In value terms, itisforecastto expand by +7.5%in 2017 and+6.3%in 2018. The lattertrend isin line with the synchronized acceleration of growth acrossthe globe aftertwo disappointing years(2014-16), during which globaltrade haslost close toUSD3tn. The main culprits were demand shocks and a collapse of commodity prices. In 2017, due to a significantrise in prices, we expectthe trend to reverse. By 2018, global trade should recoverthe massive losses. Furthermore,trade recovery issetto add half a pointto worldGDP growth this year and next and help it edge above+3%. Strong demand growth will come from theUS,the Eurozone, and emerging Asia.On the exportside, Europe and Emerging Asia are setto benefitthe mostfrom the trade momentum.
Euler Hermes emphasise the importance of cultural differences within export markets to success in commercial communications. November’s newsletter is inclusive of a webinar regarding market intelligence, as well as an article explaining the processes behind collection practices in varying countries.
My beautiful daughter, Everly Anderson Hughes (or the future director of Hanwell Atkinson as I like to call her) was born on 21st April 2016. She instantly filled my heart with love…and surprise!! I’d left work 3 weeks before my due date, my labour started on day 3 of my maternity leave and she arrived on day 4! I had the guys here quaking in their boots that she could have arrived at my desk!
Then started my journey of motherhood. 10, mostly wonderful, months of baby groups, pram assembly meltdowns, hours of driving nowhere to get baby to sleep and (cold) coffee mornings. Through the chaos came our first family holiday to the beautiful Isle of Wight, enrolling her in swimming lessons as young as 5 months old, her first Christmas – life was sweet as a family of three.
However, the loom of returning to work was upon us and after 10 months I sent Everly off on her first day to nursery. She went off smiling in to the arms of another woman, stuffed her face and napped perfectly. I on the other hand was a blubbering mess, my heart broken in to a million pieces at the thought of someone else doing the job of raising my Princess. But, Everly loved it…thankfully.
My first day back at work passed by in a blur, well blurry for me as I’m pretty sure I was close to tears the entire day. I hadn’t used a proper computer in months and hadn’t really talked about anything else but babies in so long, it did feel a little overwhelming. I had been out the loop so long that part of me felt like I wasn’t capable of doing my job but over time as the routine of working and leaving Everly became easier, I began to feel a bit like the old me again.
I’ve been back 9 months now and it’s hard to remember what it was like being at home full time with Everly, who is now 18 months old. She is still happy when I drop her off and what is even nicer now she is a little bit bigger, is the smiles and loud “Mumma” I get when I pick her up. My heart still breaks when I drop her off, I battle with the guilt of leaving her along with the guilt of enjoying having some time to myself and being “Aimee” for a bit and not just “Mum”. With 2 and half days working and the rest being at home with my girl, I feel like I’ve got the balance of being working mum just right!
Euler Hermes positively describe global economic growth, emphasizing significant increases in the US, the Eurozone, China and Japan. This review focuses most prominently on Greece, a nation that is finally experiencing an economic upswing after years of contraction.
Atradius note that within the Asia-Pacific region, after a minor decrease from 45.0% in 2015 to 44.3% in 2016, the percentage of overdue B2B invoices in Asia-Pacific has increased again this year to 45.4%. A high percentage of respondents in the region stated their intention to increase credit management practices to better protect their businesses against the potential impact of slower growth.
Duncan and Laurie travelled to the Euler Hermes World Agency Head-quarters in Paris in September to hold the bi-annual meeting with Twentieth Century Fox and Euler. The purpose of the meeting was to evaluate the cover in place within the global programme, and to accommodate the seasonal peaks for Q4 with preparations for Christmas 2017.
The meeting was attended by Eric Delatte and Celine Vavon at World Agency with Helene Yaghi taking over as the new Account Director for FOX in Paris.
Twentieth Century Fox presented their slate for 2017/18 which has some very interesting productions such as :
Kingsman – The Golden Circle
Murder on the Orient Express
The Greatest Showman
The Mountain Between Us
The long-awaited sequel to Avatar has been delayed but 20th Century Fox are expecting this to be released during 2018.
In order to give their policies more clarity and greater accuracy to reflect the Insurance Act, QBE have undergone a review of the wordings for all of their products. The details of which can be accessed on the link below.